US applications for unemployment benefits rose last week before Iran, Israel and the US announced a two-week ceasefire deal that injected a degree of optimism into a still-clouded global economic picture.
The number of Americans applying for jobless aid for the week ending April 4 jumped by 16,000 to 219,000 from the previous week’s 203,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. That’s more than the 210,000 new filings analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet were expecting but within the range of the past several years.
Filings for unemployment benefits are considered representative of US lay-offs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market.
Tuesday night’s ceasefire announcement sent oil prices plummeting to US$95 a barrel, though they jumped back up near US$100 early Thursday over scepticism about the durability of the deal, after Israel launched a wave of attacks on Lebanon and Iran re-closed the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes.
Financial markets also retreated on Thursday following big gains a day earlier.
A barrel of US crude had reached US$112 before the ceasefire was announced, up from about US$67 in the days leading up to the conflict. Even with Wednesday’s big decline, businesses and consumers are still saddled with higher energy costs as the price of oil and gas remain elevated.
This comes at a time when US inflation was already above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target, further diminishing the chances of an interest rate cut by central bank officials any time soon. The government issues its March consumer prices report on Friday.
Also on Thursday, in a report delayed due to the federal shutdown, government data showed that a key inflation gauge remained elevated in February, even before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
Fed officials voted to raise the rate three times to close 2025, out of concern for a weakening job market, but have held off lowering rates further this year.
The Labor Department reported last week that US employers added an unexpectedly strong 178,000 new jobs in March, nudging the unemployment rate back down to 4.3 per cent. That followed a surprisingly large loss of 92,000 jobs in February. Revisions also have trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, a sign that the labour market remains under strain.
A number of high-profile companies have cut jobs recently, including the software maker Oracle, which, according to media reports, cut thousands of workers last week. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that The Walt Disney Co is preparing to cull 1,000 positions from its workforce.
Others that have recently announced job cuts include Morgan Stanley, Block, UPS and Amazon.
– AP
Weekly jobless aid applications have stabilised in a range, mostly between 200,000 and 250,000, since the US economy emerged from the pandemic recession. However, hiring began slowing about two years ago and tapered further in 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff roll-outs, his purge of the federal workforce, and the lingering effects of high interest rates meant to control inflation.
Employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs last year, compared with about 1.5 million in 2024, according to the data firm FactSet.
The American labour market appears stuck in what economists call a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ state that has kept the unemployment rate historically low, but has left those out of work struggling to find a new job.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the four-week moving average of jobless claims, which evens out some of the weekly volatility, rose by 1,500 to 209,500.
The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending March 28 fell by 38,000 to 1.79 million, the fewest in nearly two years.
– AP
