Consumer and business confidence in Jamaica delivered mixed results in the first quarter of 2026.
Households recovered some ground lost after Hurricane Melissa, but businesses became more cautious as they grappled with higher costs and lower profits.
“Before we sort of jump and kick our heels about consumer confidence, we need to bear in mind that it is coming out of a slump,” said Don Anderson, chairman and CEO of Market Research Services, in presenting the findings at the Terra Nova Hotel in Kingston on Tuesday.
Market Research Services conducts the survey for the quarterly JCC Business and Consumer Confidence Indices, which has tracked sentiment across Jamaica’s economy for 25 years under the auspices of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce.
Consumer confidence improved by 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, partially reversing the sharp decline of 17.5 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, when Hurricane Melissa struck the western parishes in late October and delivered what Anderson described as “total depression” in sentiment. Despite the rebound, consumer confidence has not returned to first-quarter 2025 levels.
“Consumers tend to react very quickly to changes around them – changes in the economy, how they perceive businesses, how they perceive their own situations. And as a result, we find that consumers have a kind of knee-jerk reaction,” Anderson said.
One measure of that recovery: the share of consumers who felt current business conditions were positive, rose from 12.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 16.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, though Anderson cautioned that the figure remained below pre-Melissa levels.
Turning to business confidence, the index moved to 124 points, or down 6.5 per cent, in the first quarter of 2026. That’s well below the all-time high of 140 points reached in 2023 as Jamaica emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. Anderson said businesses recognise that the immediate post-Melissa shock is passing, but view the broader recovery as a prolonged process.
The job market remained a persistent weak spot. The share of consumers who felt jobs were plentiful fell from 9.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 8.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, below the 11.7 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Anderson said consumers have maintained a consistently pessimistic view of employment prospects throughout the survey’s history.
“They’ve never felt [jobs] were plentiful, and again, all these indices point exactly to that reality,” Anderson said.
neville.graham@gleanerjm.com
