University of the West Indies (UWI) economist Dr Damien King hopes Jamaica never strikes commercially viable oil – and he means it.
King, who lectures in economics at UWI, fears what development economists call the ‘resource curse’ – a pattern in which the discovery of natural resources weakens, rather than strengthens, a country’s institutions and governance.
“I hope commercially viable oil is not found, because I don’t want to put this in front of our political parties,” King told the Financial Gleaner.
The potential wealth and power that flows from an oil discovery, he argues, creates fertile conditions for political and financial corruption.
“Oil will become a strong temptation,” King said. “There are too many examples of local institutions that become weak, undermined and corrupt when resources start to flow through them.”
King contends that no nation grows wealthy by extracting oil it owns in the ground. Rather, it is countries that refine the commodity – without depending on it as a natural endowment – that tend to develop. He points to Asian nations as instructive contrasts.
“Join me in hoping that oil is never discovered in Jamaica. Countries are more likely to become wealthy if they’re forced to produce it, like Singapore and South Korea, rather than sucking or digging it out the ground, like Venezuela and Angola,” King wrote this week on the platform X.
Asked about Guyana which discovered oil in 2015, commercialised it five years later, and has since recorded the fastest economic growth rate in the world with another 16 per cent planned for 2026, King said: “Let’s discuss Guyana in five years’ time.”
The context for King’s remarks is a live one. Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz signalled at a post-Cabinet press briefing at Jamaica House that the Government is actively seeking oil exploration investors, with drilling potentially commencing as early as late 2027 or early 2028.
UK-listed United Oil & Gas Plc, which holds the offshore exploration licence, recently released results of a geo-chemical survey of the seabed that confirmed oil indicators.
“We have identified butane and pentane hydrocarbons in the analysis. These results enhance our understanding of the licence and provide an important input as we advance towards a drilling decision,” Chief Executive Brian Larkin said earlier this month.
Jamaica’s offshore oil history stretches back further than most realise. The island’s first oil seep was identified at Windsor in St Ann in 1865, according to United Oil & Gas’ 2024 investor presentation. The first well was not drilled until the 1950s, also at Windsor. Nearly a dozen wells followed onshore and offshore over subsequent decades, with the final onshore drilling occurring in 1982 at Windsor, Retrieve and Hertford. Oil was encountered in virtually all of them – but never in commercial quantities.
United Oil has said drilling an exploration well would cost upwards of US$20 million, with a one-in-four chance of success.
The current offshore programme represents the most advanced stage of oil exploration undertaken in four decades. Any drilling would trigger environmental and social impact assessments, heightened regulatory oversight, and Cabinet-level approvals under Jamaica’s production-sharing framework. A commercial discovery would then require negotiations on development plans, cost recovery, and revenue-sharing terms before production could begin.
Vaz has said offshore oil remains a scientific possibility rather than a proven fact.
King wants it to stay that way.
“The presence of natural resources seems to do more harm than good, historically. In the long run, the presence of natural resources is associated with a lower standard of living, not higher,” he said.
carolyn.guniss@rjrgleaner.com
