Jamaica’s economy contracted 2.9 per cent in the April to June quarter, but the Planning Institute of Jamaica has shortened its projected recovery timeline to two years from three.
“Given the pace of recovery so far, the current expected timeline for attaining pre-Melissa output levels is now within one and a half to two years of the event, that is, as early as the April to June quarter of 2027,” PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said at the organisation’s quarterly media briefing on Tuesday.
The PIOJ had initially projected that the economy would not return to pre-hurricane output until fiscal year 2028/29. That estimate has now been brought forward by roughly a year.
Dr Henry cautioned, however, that a return to pre-Melissa output is not the same as full recovery. Rebuilding housing stock, public infrastructure and livelihoods would take three to five years, he said.
The 2.9 per cent year-over-year decline in the June quarter was driven by the lingering effects of the hurricane, compounded by El Niño conditions that brought hotter, drier weather and heightened risks to agriculture and water supply.
The goods-producing sector contracted 6.4 per cent. Mining and quarrying fell 23.9 per cent, with alumina production down 30.8 per cent and capacity utilisation dropping to just 27.3 per cent.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing declined 17 per cent, led by a 72 per cent collapse in banana production and a 77.5 per cent fall in plantains. Construction showed modest growth of 0.3 per cent, supported by a 56.8 per cent surge in cement production.
The services sector contracted 1.7 per cent. Accommodation and food service activities fell 12.2 per cent, consistent with a 19.6 per cent decline in stopover arrivals for April and May. Visitor expenditure dropped 17 per cent to US$578 million over the same period. Electricity, water supply and waste management declined 4.1 per cent.
ECONOMIC OUTPUT
December quarter ▼ -7.3 per cent
March quarter ▲ 3.3 per cent
June quarter ▼ -2.9 per cent
– Luke Douglas
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